Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 17.830506 20.528563 23.700242 27.758843 32.896780 39.302188 48.088511
2025-02-23 14.402043 17.607853 21.737328 27.618027 36.088025 48.402538 68.885691
2025-03-02 12.470505 15.830191 20.419443 27.444948 38.547982 56.737337 92.446744
2025-03-09 11.268815 14.736159 19.701695 27.777323 41.623476 66.986793 126.029083
2025-03-16 10.042346 13.398857 18.364043 26.791675 42.132310 72.774195 155.161893
2025-03-23 9.269080 12.607762 17.704347 26.730319 44.201536 82.514419 204.552096
2025-03-30 8.393868 11.559654 16.491962 25.476147 43.609835 86.105610 240.402137
2025-04-06 7.611937 10.579553 15.274072 24.009040 42.218754 87.212952 269.866823
2025-04-13 7.000751 9.814636 14.330635 22.906521 41.356779 89.432087 309.311145
2025-04-20 7.124412 10.223734 15.397099 25.794842 50.285963 125.309616 647.635626
2025-04-27 6.925599 10.083526 15.486529 26.750872 54.949886 152.084195 1139.786577
2025-05-04 6.464956 9.468074 14.658038 25.642829 53.858205 156.218336 1421.995243
2025-05-11 6.272477 9.312071 14.689965 26.487995 58.747332 192.345580 3258.759328
2025-05-18 5.978439 8.958864 14.318482 26.376776 60.875201 219.114482 7297.741882
2025-05-25 5.708304 8.626367 13.951708 26.213716 62.821443 248.675355 22976.325092
2025-06-01 5.513517 8.412673 13.794030 26.524868 66.521369 297.621382 718265.698505
2025-06-08 5.211858 7.986414 13.175534 25.601996 65.567488 311.395497 NaN
2025-06-15 5.019263 7.746691 12.913109 25.544517 67.852100 359.410816 NaN
2025-06-22 4.737510 7.327512 12.252371 24.368759 65.458506 359.066244 NaN
2025-06-29 4.456061 6.896429 11.541849 22.991339 61.959079 343.370344 NaN
2025-07-06 4.223347 6.546095 10.979488 21.954728 59.639600 339.045649 NaN
2025-07-13 4.331893 6.835854 11.771695 24.667679 74.165010 604.737941 NaN
2025-07-20 4.277193 6.812544 11.895255 25.563772 81.408873 845.227090 NaN